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Contents:
This Week with George Stephanopoulos
Meet The Press With Tim Russert
Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace
Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer
Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer
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Ambassador John Negroponte
On ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos
January 23, 2005
Baghdad, Iraq
(9:00 a.m. EST)
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Mr. Ambassador, thank you very much for joining us. How do you respond to critics who say that holding elections under current conditions is a recipe for civil war?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, these elections are called for by the interim Iraqi constitution, and by a Security Council resolution. So they are basically keeping to a political timetable that they agreed upon more than a year ago. Secondly, we foresee strong participation in the elections, especially in the northern and in the southern parts of the country. There may be some problematic areas in the center, particularly in two of the provinces in the Sunni Triangle. But even there, every effort is being made to provide the kind of security that will permit the largest possible number of residents there to be able to vote.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: And how will we know if the elections are a success? What are your benchmarks?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, the very fact that the election is taking place, I think, is important. You might recall, six or eight months ago, people were simply wondering whether or not they could take place. Secondly, the fact that this will be the fair and free exercise of a popular franchise, I think, is going to be viewed important by many, many, many people here because it's a historic first. And secondly, it's going to lead to the creation of a national assembly and a democratically, popularly- elected government, whereas the current government is an appointed one. So this is part of a steady progression towards an ever more democratic society.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: That new government is going to be under tremendous pressure to get rid of American troops. It's in a lot of the platforms of the major parties. Who decides whether American troops will leave, the new government, or us?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, the -- I think leaders, political leaders here, and ourselves, have focused principally on the notion of enabling the Iraqi armed forces, their military and their police to take on as much of the responsibility for providing security in their country as possible. That is increasing every day, and we will persist in that effort to strengthen the capacity of the Iraqi armed forces and police to take ever-greater responsibility for their security.
I think that a number of the political parties to which you refer do look to a day when they will not have to rely as much, or even at all, on American security assistance; but I think those same individuals would agree that now is not yet that moment.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But if they set a fixed date for a withdrawal, will we comply?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, none of them have done so, so you're asking me a hypothetical question. But I think the basic answer to your question is that if, at some point, the government of Iraq decides that it no longer believes that our forces are necessary here for their own security, we will comply with that wish. That's made clear, actually, in Security Council Resolution 1546.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Finally, sir, you mentioned those Iraqi security forces, and I hope you can clear something up for us this morning. At her hearings this week, Secretary-designate Condoleezza Rice said that there were 120,000 trained Iraqi security forces. But Prime Minister Allawi, the interim prime minister, was on British television this morning saying there were only 60- to 70,000 Iraqi security forces. What's the real number?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think we get into a kind of a numbers issue here about who's been trained in what way and how long. Some forces have been trained longer than others. For example, the army, the regular army here, gets a, really, a full course of training. Some of the police have been simply retrained. They might have been former policemen. My measure or benchmark, if you will, is the number of Iraqi battalions. There's something on the order of 70 to 80 Iraqi battalions that are operational at the moment. And the evidence of this is that there are a number of cities and towns that were problematic previously, such as Najaf, Sadr City, Samara, where previously, there were no Iraqi forces available to deal with those situations.
Today, you will find that Iraqi forces are there and in very good control of the situation.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Mr. Ambassador, thank you very much.
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Ambassador John Negroponte
On NBC's Meet The Press With Tim Russert
January 23, 2005
Baghdad, Iraq
(10:30 a.m. EST)
MR. RUSSERT: But first, joining us now from Baghdad is the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte.
Mr. Ambassador, one week from today, the Iraqis will vote in a free election. Fourteen million are eligible to vote. How many do you expect to actually show up at the polls?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that remains to be seen. I think we expect a good turnout in the northern part of the country and in the south. There may be a couple of problematic provinces in the center. But in at least 14 out of the 18 governates in Iraq, I think we can expect a very strong turnout.
MR. RUSSERT: But if a sizeable minority boycott the election, how will it be seen by the world?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that, first of all, all the polling data and all our contacts and discussions with Iraqi political figures suggest that the large majority of Iraqi people, including Sunnis, wish to exercise their right to vote.
So the important thing is security, and we are doing our utmost to work with the Iraqi armed forces and their police to make sure that the necessary security measures are in place so that every Iraqi eligible to do so can exercise his or her right to vote.
MR. RUSSERT: These are the stories that have been read across the United States and around the world about the security situation regarding voting and campaigning in Iraq: "Guerillas have stepped up their attacks and driven most candidates deep indoors, a result, in large swaths of the country, it is a campaign in the shadows, where candidates are often too terrified to say their names instead of holding rallies. They meet voters in secret if they meet them at all. Instead of canvassing for votes, they fend off death threats.
As you well know, Mr. Ambassador, many Iraqis still don't know where the voting booths are going to be because of security concerns. How can you hold an election in that environment?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I just got off the telephone with General Casey, the commander of the multinational force, who has been visiting three provinces in the south, where he assures me that the security measures are very well in hand and in place; and that the expectation is that there will be large voter participation. So I think rather than just focusing on some of the problematic areas, I think one has to look at the country as a whole, and the situation in its overall context.
And in that -- looking at it in that vein, I think we can expect strong participation by the people of Iraq in an election that they really want, and which will mark a transition from an appointed to an elected government.
MR. RUSSERT: The CIA and other intelligence agencies have done analysis for our government leaders. This is how The Miami Herald reported its contents: "New U.S. intelligence assessments on Iraq paint a grim picture of the road ahead, and conclude there is little likelihood that President Bush's goals can be attained in the near future. Instead of stabilizing the country, national elections January 30 are likely to be followed by more violence, and could provoke a civil war between majority Shiite Muslims and minority Sunni Muslims, the CIA and other intelligence agencies predict."
What's your reaction?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I -- first of all, I simply don't subscribe to that prediction. Secondly, I would say that most Iraqis, including Iraqis of all ethnicities and religious persuasions want their country to move forward in a peaceful, democratic fashion.
We're already seeing signs that the various groups and parties that are participating in the elections want to reach out in a hand -- to extend a hand of friendship to the other parties after the election. People talk a lot about participation and consensus. And I think even with respect to the Sunni areas, a lot of people are thinking about if, indeed, they are underrepresented in the national assembly, might there be other ways to involve them in the political process?
There will be a three-person presidency. There will be a new cabinet. And of course, there will be the drafting of a constitution. So I think people here are looking at ways to include all elements of Iraqi society in these very, very important future political steps.
MR. RUSSERT: Do you expect a newly elected Iraqi Government would set a specific timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I don't know whether it would do that. The presence of United States forces and the multinational force is mandated by a Security Council resolution, which says that our forces will be here during -- for the duration of the political process. But the nature and extent of our military presence is always something that we're open to discussing with the Iraqi governmental authorities.
MR. RUSSERT: But if they set a specific timetable, would we honor it?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, we are here at the invitation of the Iraqis. And we are here in complete respect for their sovereignty. But you are asking a hypothetical question, and I wouldn't want anything I say to be construed as predicting whether or not that might actually happen.
MR. RUSSERT: How large is the insurgency?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I can say -- I don't think anybody knows with absolute certainty how large it is. We've heard varying estimates. But I can say that since I have been here, over the past six months, I think the level of military activity and the level of incidents instigated by the insurgency has remained roughly the same.
MR. RUSSERT: How could an insurgency of that magnitude exist without support, significant support, from the populace?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, it may have popular support in some areas, but what I would submit to you is that core of this insurgency are ruthless, Saddamist, former regime elements, who are aided and abetted by al-Qaida and other international terrorists.
I don't think they care that much about popular support. They use terror as a tactic both against the enemy and against the populace from whom -- upon whom they depend for support.
MR. RUSSERT: Senator Joe Biden, Delaware Democrat, said this week in Washington that there are only 4,000 fully trained and capable Iraqi soldiers in the Iraqi armed forces. Is that accurate?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that really understates the accomplishments of the Iraqi army and police forces. They've had a number of successes in the past several months in Najaf, in Samara, in eastern Baghdad. There's some 75 or 80 Iraqi battalions that are currently trained and operating, so I think that that 4,000 figure understates the progress that has been made by Iraq's armed forces in the past six months.
MR. RUSSERT: Where would you put the figure? What should the American people know? How many fully capable and trained Iraqi soldiers are there?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I'd be -- I'm not certain what number to put on the number trained. I would say that -- but as I did mention, there are 79 or 80 battalions that are out there operating. For example, just to give you an example, in Fallujah right now, there are nine Iraqi battalions that are operating. There are several Iraqi battalions up in Mosul, providing security there.
These are forces that simply did not exist six or eight months ago. You may recall last April, when the situations in Najaf and Fallujah arose, there were no Iraqi forces available to help deal with those situations. But in August, when the Najaf uprising was put down, when the Sadr City situation was brought under control, there was a real team effort between the multinational force and the Iraqi armed forces and the police forces to bring these situations under control.
So there's been a definite improvement. It's not been as good as -- or as fast as we would like, but there is no higher priority than continuing to train, equip and mentor Iraqi armed and police forces going forward. And we think that's a very essential aspect of our policies here.
MR. RUSSERT: The New York Times report yesterday that $300 million was taken from the Bank of Iraq, put on a chartered jet to Lebanon. What can you tell us about that, and how did it happen?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, we're looking into these allegations, but I would note that they have arisen in the context of an electoral campaign here, and campaign charges that are being exchanged between two of the principal candidates. So I'm not entirely certain what to make of them. But I would note that they come up one week before the election date.
In any event, we're looking into it and trying to find out as much detail about those charges as possible. My understanding is that these are Iraqi monies that are involved, not United States Government appropriated funds. Nonetheless, we are trying to gather as many facts about this situation as we can.
MR. RUSSERT: The Iraqi National Security Advisor said, "corruption is worse now than under Saddam Hussein.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I just -- I simply can't accept that, or can't agree to that allegation. I would also point out that while he may still carry the official title of national security advisor, he is, in fact, a candidate for political office and not carrying out the national security advisor function at this time. But when you think of the corruption in the Saddam regime, the Oil-for-Food scandals, the billions of dollars that were smuggled out of the country, I think those levels of corruption simply pale in comparison to anything that might possibly have been happening in recent months.
MR. RUSSERT: When the world wakes up next Monday, Mr. Ambassador, what will they say and think about the Iraqi election that just took place?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, what I certainly hope they'll say is that Iraq took a very important step towards the fulfillment of its democratic process, that this was a historic first in their political history and that going forward, hopefully, that this will ensure even greater participation and inclusiveness in Iraq's political activities going forward.
MR. RUSSERT: John Negroponte, we thank you very much for your time and your views; and be safe.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Thank you very much.
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Ambassador John Negroponte
On Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace
January 23, 2005
Baghdad, Iraq
(9:00 a.m. EST)
MR. WALLACE: Mr. Ambassador, welcome. Thanks for talking with us.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Thank you.
MR. WALLACE: What do you expect from the insurgents, the terrorists, in this last week before the election? Some are talking about the possibility of a rolling Tet offensive to try to break the will of the Iraqis and of the American public here at home.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, certainly, the insurgents and the al-Qaida and Zarqawi have all said that they want to do their utmost to try and disrupt the elections, but security measures are being taken by both the MNF, the multinational forces here in Iraq, as well as the Iraqi armed forces and police. They have elaborate security plans that go all the way down to the district level here in this country. And I would expect that we can see strong -- we will see strong participation by Iraqi voters in the northern and southern parts of this country and there be some problematic areas, particularly in the center, in the Sunni Triangle, especially the provinces of Al-Anbar and Nineveh. But even there, great efforts are being made to enable every Iraqi eligible to do so to be able to vote.
MR. WALLACE: Well, let me ask you about that, Mr. Ambassador, and let’s talk specifically about election day. Iraqi and American military officials say that four of the country’s 18 provinces that have 40 percent of the population may be unsafe for voters. Do you expect next Sunday, election day, do you expect attacks on polling places, and can you guarantee that anyone who wants to vote will be able to do so safely?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I don’t think there’s any such thing in Iraq, particularly under present circumstances, as an absolute guarantee. But what I can tell you is that there are elaborate plans, that security measures are being taken by both the multinational forces and the Iraqi armed forces and police, and that I think in large parts of the country, the preponderance of the country, it will be safe for people to go and vote.
Secondly, I think it’s important to focus on the significance of these elections: What’s at stake here? The Iraqi people will be voting for a National Assembly of 275 persons and that assembly, in turn, will select a new government, the first elected government, because the present one is appointed, and it will turn its attention then to drafting a new constitution to shape the political future of the country.
So these are really very exciting moments in the political history of Iraq and we detect a great deal of enthusiasm for them.
QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador, I want to get to the election and what is going to spring from that in a moment, but during the Condoleezza Rice’s confirmation hearings this week, there was a discussion about Iraqi -- the Iraqi military, the state of their readiness, particularly because the Iraqi military will play the lead role in protection at the polling places next Sunday. Now, she and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware disagreed sharply about how many Iraqi troops have been adequately trained. Let’s watch that exchange, if we can:
Dr. Rice: “We think the number right now is somewhere over 120,000.”
Senator Biden: “I think you’ll find, if you speak to the folks on the ground, they don’t think there’s more than 4,000 actually trained Iraqi forces.”
Mr. Ambassador, how can there be such a wide gap in what U.S. military officials are saying, between 4,000 and 120,000?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, with all due respect for my friend, Senator Biden, I think he very much understates the level of training and readiness of the Iraqi armed forces. Certainly, there is still a long way to go, but if you look at their performance in the past six months, I think you will see that there's been steady progress. There are towns, such as Najaf and Samarra and others, Al-Sadr City, here in eastern Baghdad, where the Iraqi security forces did not have any kind of a handle on the situation last April and now they’re in good control. So there is steady progress. There is, of course, much more to be done. But I think Senator Biden’s figures understate the level of preparedness of the Iraqi armed forces.
MR. WALLACE: I want to talk about this, that much more needs to be done. As we reported just a moment ago, General Luck came back from his fact-finding trip to Iraq and has reportedly recommended a big ramp-up in the training of Iraqi security forces. I guess I really have two questions. First of all, why wasn’t that done a lot sooner? And secondly, how long will it take before they are able to achieve the stated goal, which is to have the Iraqis leading the fight against the insurgency and not U.S. forces? Three months, six months, a year? How long?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, your first question about why wasn’t more done, when I first got here in the beginning of July, one of my first mandates was to review our assistance program and the allocations in that program, and I recommended after about six weeks of study the reprogramming of $1.8 billion from our reconstruction program to further train and equip the Iraqi armed forces. And as I said at my own Senate confirmation hearings, I can think of no higher priority than the enabling of the Iraqi armed forces and their police forces so that they can take on greater and greater responsibility for the security of their country.
MR. WALLACE: But, Mr. Ambassador, you were talking about that so many months ago. Why is it that General Luck now, after a fact-finding trip, is talking about doubling or tripling the number of American trainers?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, as I said, we recommended $1.8 billion reprogramming and that reprogramming was undertaken, so that’s not exactly an insignificant sum of money, nor does it represent an insignificant effort. I would say that General Petraeus has been working very hard, very intensively, to improve the quality and numbers of the Iraqi armed forces.
I don’t want to prejudge or second-guess what General Luck is going to report to Secretary Rumsfeld. After all, he hasn’t reported yet. He’ll do that this coming week. But if he recommends intensive -- intensified training, even further intensified training, well, we’ll have to consider that. And I think the more that can be done in this area, the better, in terms of enabling the Iraqis to take on greater, and ultimately complete, responsibility, for security in their country.
MR. WALLACE: And how long will that take? Are we talking months, years?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I’m most reluctant to put a time frame on that. We've shied away from doing that. But I would say that a certain amount of progress has been made so far. They’ve stood up something on the order of 70 army and national guard battalions. They’ve stood up a number of police commando battalions. Things are getting better.
MR. WALLACE: Let’s talk about the elections because, as you said, it is a very exciting time. There seems to be a tremendous commitment to this elections among the Shiites and the Kurds, and the head of the slate most likely to finish first next week is Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, who has close ties to Iran.
Mr. Ambassador, how confident are you that he will run an inclusive government with a clear role for the Sunnis and that the clerics won’t end up running the country?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, I don’t think we can really forecast what the exact political coloration of the new National Assembly will be. As you know, there’s more than a hundred different slates that are competing in this election. Now, it is true that there are three or four frontrunners, if you will, but even there, I don’t think that any group is going to necessarily win a majority and there’s certainly not going to be any monolithic party that is going to dominate this new National Assembly.
So I think it’s premature to judge either who’s going to win the most seats or who will form the new government, but I suspect it’s going to represent a mixture of parties along a fairly broad spectrum of Iraqi politics.
MR. WALLACE: Leaders of the various Shiite groups, and even Prime Minister Allawi, have promised voters that once these elections take place and a new government is formed, that they will press for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. I’m trying to understand the nature of our relationship with this new government. If they call for a withdrawal of troops, or, let’s say, the beginning of the withdrawal of troops in, let’s say, three months, will we do that?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, our presence here, the mandate for the multinational forces, is covered by Security Council Resolution 1546, and it talks about the terms of reference and the timetable for those forces. Our focus in our discussion with the Iraqi Government up until now has been on how to improve the training, equipping of the Iraqi armed forces. And, obviously, the sooner that we’re able to do that, the easier it will be to reduce the involvement of our own forces in combat.
I think that most Iraqis would prefer that security responsibility, and the entire responsibility for security for their country, be in the hands of Iraqis themselves, and we share that goal with the people and the Government of Iraq. But the precise timetable, I think, is very hard to judge at this point, but I think the ultimate goal is one that we all share.
MR. WALLACE: What I guess I’m trying to get at, Mr. Ambassador, is that I don’t have to tell you, certainly, that more than 1,300 Americans have been killed in Iraq. Does the U.S. have an obligation to do what the new government asks, or do we have our own independent security interests in Iraq?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, that’s why I referred you, Chris, to Resolution 1546. It says that the multinational force shall be in Iraq for the duration of the political process that culminates in elections at the end of this year, but that the mandate could be ended earlier, if requested, by the Government of Iraq. So that’s in a Security Council resolution that the United States voted for.
But I believe the reality of the situation is that we and most Iraqis agree that what ought to drive this question is not some kind of an artificial timetable, but the issue of whether or not the Iraqi army and police and other security forces are fully able to take charge of security in their country. And when you get down to talking about this issue with Iraqi political leaders, that’s where most of them come out.
MR. WALLACE: Finally, Mr. Ambassador, I’d like to ask you about the Sunnis, who, obviously, as you pointed out, live in the area where there is the greatest violence and probably the greatest threat to voting on election day. Give us a benchmark, or at least a sense, if you will, what is the minimum turnout that you need to see in Sunni areas in the country for this election to be considered legitimate?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I don’t think that we should allow the question of Sunni turnout to be the arbiter, if you will, of the legitimacy of this election. What about the aspirations of the other ethnic and religious groups in this country or the non-sectarian politicians? So I think we have to be very careful about that. And to me, the important thing is the fact that the election will be taking place and I suspect there will be very wide participation.
Now, we’d like to see as much voting take place in the Sunni areas as possible. We’re taking security measures to ensure that that happens. And also, there are a lot of people here thinking about how to reach out to the various Sunni elements in the post-election phase when there will, after all, be a tripartite presidency formed, there will be a cabinet to be selected and a constitution to be drafted, followed by a referendum on that constitution and, finally, by elections for a definitive government in December. So there will be many future opportunities for people to participate who might not participate in the election that is coming up next Sunday.
MR. WALLACE: Ambassador Negroponte, we’re going to have to leave it there. We want to thank you so much for being with us, and good luck over the next week.
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Ambassador John Negroponte
On CBS’s Face the Nation with Bob Schieffer
January 23, 2005
Baghdad, Iraq
(10:30 a.m. EST)
QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador, thank you for coming. We’re told that the outlook now is for a big turnout in the northern part of the country, where the Kurds are; that you’re expecting a good turnout for the elections Sunday in the south, the Shiite areas; but the real problem is going to be in the middle of the country. What do you think is going to happen there?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first, I’d agree with you that there will be a good turnout in the north and in the south; and as far as the central part of the country, there are a couple of provinces which are problematic, but even there every effort is being made to ensure that there is sufficient security so that as many people can vote as possible. A lot of priority is being devoted to security, securing the ballots, locations, not only in the Sunni Triangle but throughout the country.
So I’m hopeful that quite a few people will vote, but we’re just going to have to wait and see.
MR. SCHIEFFER: What do you think would be a good percentage, what would be a good vote, looking at Iraq, overall?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONE: Well, I think there’s a danger here of trying to judge the legitimacy or credibility of the election in terms of turnout alone. As we said earlier, there will be a good turnout in the north and in the south, and the center we’re going to have to wait and see.
But I think we’ve also got to judge this election in terms of what it represents to the political life of this country. This is the first free election that they’ve held. They’re going to be moving from an appointed to an elected government. They’re going to draft a constitution which will then be passed upon by a referendum next October, and then elections for a definitive government in December. So this is a very important and exciting political process and we detect a lot of interest and enthusiasm on the part of the people of Iraq for what lies ahead.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Mr. Ambassador, obviously, security is the issue, it’s the problem that has to be resolved here. We continue to hear that the training of Iraqi forces is going very, very slowly. But if I understand what you’re telling reporters, you will not put a number on how many Iraqi forces have actually been trained. Are you willing to do that, to tell us just how many have been trained?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, first of all, Senator Biden said at the confirmation hearing of Secretary-designate Rice that he thought only 4,000, or he had been told that only 4,000 Iraqi forces were well trained, and I think that figure significantly underestimates the work that’s been accomplished. And as Secretary-designate Rice said, more than 100,000 Iraqi armed forces and police have been trained.
Another way of looking at this is the fact that Iraqi armed forces have taken responsibility for a number of very difficult areas and situations that they were not able to do before, such as Najaf, such as Sadr City, and now even in Fallujah it is Iraqi armed forces that are providing security in that area. So I see progress. A lot of effort is being -- and resources are being devoted to improving the quality of the Iraqi armed forces and that process will continue.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Well, let me put it another way. How close are the Iraqi forces to being able to defend the country on their own?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, if you’re asking me to put a time limit on it, I’d be most reluctant to do that. But the goal is to enable the Iraqi army and police to take over full responsibility for the security of their country. Progress -- significant progress -- has been made and I’m sure that as this year unfolds a lot more progress will be accomplished as well. But if you ask me to put a time limit on it, I think I’d be reluctant to do that.
MR. SCHIEFFER: Well, let me -- all right, I take you then, you can’t say at this point how close they are to doing it. Let me ask you one more question. There have been reports all week that the Iraqis may, in fact, ask us to leave after this election. Do you think that is within the realm of possibility, and what would we do should they ask us to go?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I don’t think that will happen. I think we share a common goal with most Iraqi political leaders that Iraqi forces be trained so that they can take over the responsibility, the full responsibility, for the security of their country as soon as possible. And I think they see our role in that context. I’m not aware of many political leaders who would want us to leave before the Iraqi armed forces and police were able to take on that responsibility.
MR. SCHIEFFER: And so is what you’re telling us here this morning, Mr. Ambassador, that no one can make a projection as to how long American forces are going to be in Iraq?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I think that you’re going to see a steady progress in the improvement of the Iraqi armed forces and police. I think that as that process goes forward it’s going to mean that they’re able to take on more and more of the responsibilities that we are carrying out now. And that, in turn, will enable, over time, some of our forces to come home. But I would be most reluctant to put a time frame on it at this particular point.
MR. SC HIEFER: All right, Mr. Ambassador, thank you so much.
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Ambassador John Negroponte
On CNN’s Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer
January 23, 2005
Baghdad, Iraq
(12:08 p.m. EST)
MR. BLITZER: Mr. Ambassador, thanks very much for joining us. As you know, one week from today the Iraqi elections. By all accounts, the Kurds will vote in big numbers up in the north, the Shiites will vote in big numbers throughout the country. The question is the Sunnis: Will they show up and vote? What's your assessment?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I certainly agree with you about the turnout in the north and in the south. I think we’ll have to wait and see as far as the center of the country is concerned, particularly in a couple of the more problematic Sunni provinces. But what I can tell you, Wolf, is that no effort is being spared to provide the kind of security conditions that will enable as many people as possible in those areas to vote. This includes extraordinary security measures. It also includes some special voting procedures for people in some of these areas to take into account the particularly difficult security circumstances.
MR. BLITZER: The fact that no international observers, monitors -- significant numbers, by any means -- will be able to come into Iraq because of the security concerns, the fact that they won’t be there, does that underscore how difficult this is, that the security situation simply is not at hand right now?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that even though international observers are not going to come in any significant numbers, there maybe a few, you will have, of course, the international press; but perhaps more importantly, there'll be thousands of Iraqi observers, monitors, observers, poll watchers, party members, people who've been trained by the National Democratic Institute and the International Republican Institute and others, in the techniques of poll watching. So I don’t think there's going to be any difficulty in verifying whether or not the polling shall have been conducted in an honest manner.
MR. BLITZER: Isn’t it really, though, the first time in, what, two decades that no international observers of any significant numbers have been able to monitor an election in a transitional society? And you’ve been a diplomat for many years. It underscores the serious problem that is Iraq today.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, that may be, but it’s also the first time in several decades that this country is going to have an election. I think there’s a great deal of excitement about its implications for Iraq’s democracy. They’re going to elect an assembly, a National Assembly, which, in turn, will select a new government, so there will be an elected government instead of an appointed one. They’re going to draft a constitution and that is going to go to a referendum in October and a definitive government is going to be elected by the end of this year. So there’s going to be a lot of democratic political activity in this country over the next 12 months and I think that responds to deep-seated Iraqi aspirations.
MR. BLITZER: We know that the Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi would like to stay on as prime minister. Who, in your opinion, are the biggest challengers, the biggest threats to him? Who are the other leading candidates?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I don’t think we can really answer that question at this stage. First of all, we don’t know which particular groups are going to win how many seats in the National Assembly. There are more than a hundred different slates that are competing, although, admittedly, there are three or four major slates. But we’ll have to see the distribution of seats first.
Secondly, I’d say no one group is going to have a monolithic influence over the assembly, so I suspect when it comes to selecting a new prime minister, and that prime minister will have to be chosen unanimously by a three-person presidency of the country, there is going to be a lot of horse trading. But whatever the outcome, we are going to have to work with whatever government is chosen.
MR. BLITZER: During Condoleezza Rice’s confirmation hearings in Washington on Wednesday, Democratic Senator Joe Biden, the Ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, suggested there were really only about 4,000 Iraqi troops who were well prepared, ready to go. Listen to what he said during the questioning of Condoleezza Rice:
Senator Biden: "Time and again, this Administration has tried to leave the American people with the impression that Iraq has well over 100,000 fully trained, fully competent, military police and personnel. And that is simply not true. You and I know that we’re months, probably years, away from reaching our target goal."
Is Senator Biden correct?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that 4,000, that figure of 4,000, really understates the progress that has been made in the development of the Iraqi army and police forces. And if you look at their record in some of the difficult situations that they’ve been in during the past several months, such as in Najaf, in Sadr City, in Samarra, and as we’ve watched them take on increased responsibility for security in various places, I think that they’re progressing quite well.
But I would also agree that quite a bit of work remains to be done, and training and equipping and motivating the Iraqi armed forces and their police forces is really one of our highest priorities here.
MR. BLITZER: If it’s not 4,000, how many well trained Iraqi forces are there right now?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that the well trained part is very subjective. We certainly trained more than 100,000. Different forces have received different levels of training. For example, the regular army gets more training than some of the other forces. And sometimes units go into combat and then after combat they have to be reconstituted and go through some re-training.
I think training and building of a military or police institution is a very complex process. None of this happens overnight. It requires patience and effort. But again, as I said, it’s an extremely high priority for us. We’re devoting a lot of effort to it. And I think that as Iraqi armed forces and police improve in quality and assume greater and greater responsibility for the security of their cities and for their country, this will enable our forces eventually to come home.
MR. BLITZER: So what number would you estimate is it? How many well trained Iraqi troops do you assess there is right now?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, Ms. Rice used the figure of 120,000. We count here -- General Petraeus and I, when we talk about this, we talk about the numbers of battalions that are operating and there are some 70 battalions in the Iraqi army at the moment that are out there in various parts of the country. So, again, I would say it’s considerably higher than the figure that Senator Biden put forward.
MR. BLITZER: The current U.S. strategy is being criticized by some observers, including Senator John Kerry at that Condoleezza Rice confirmation hearing. He said this. Listen to what he said:
Senator Kerry: "All of my colleagues would report to you, and I think you’ll hear it from generals and others, the current policy is growing the insurgency, not diminishing it."
That’s by making the U.S. military very visible, out front, out in the open. Do you agree with Senator Kerry?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, since I’ve been here -- I don’t know if I would agree with that because, since I’ve been here, the number of attacks instigated by the insurgency, the former regime elements and so forth, has stayed at pretty much the same level over these past six months. So, to me, that would not necessarily suggest that the insurgency has increased.
I think certain activities that they’ve undertaken have definitely increased, such as their intimidation campaign against Iraqi officials and against their armed forces and their police. But overall, the level of activity by the insurgency is about the same as it was when I got here six months ago.
MR. BLITZER: Just ahead, more of the interview with John Negroponte. A threat against the Iraqi elections: Can the insurgency derail democracy? We’ll continue our conversation with the U.S. point man on the ground in Baghdad.
(Commercial break.)
MR. BLITZER: Welcome back to Late Edition and we return now to my interview with the United States Ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi the Jordanian-born terrorist who’s leading at least a big chunk of this insurgency. On his website, at least according to this audiotape posted on two Islamic websites, says this, "We have declared a bitter war against democracy and all those who seek to enact it. Elections are a tool used by Americans to promote this lie that is called democracy…You have to be careful of the enemy’s plots that involve applying democracy in your country and confront these plots, because they only want to do so… to give the rejectionists the rule of Iraq."
That’s a voice claiming to be Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. How powerful is he right now? Why can’t he be captured?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, as far as his message is concerned about disrupting these elections, let me assure you that General Casey, the commanding general of the MNF, and the Iraqi ministries of defense and interior have put together a plan, a security plan, to ensure that as many Iraqis as possible can vote on January 30, election day. So they are making every effort to respond to these kind of threats.
The second point I’d make is that Zarqawi’s threat is just another proof of how they simply -- they have no other plan or program for this country other than to brandish threats, intimidate people and try to prevent democracy from taking hold here.
MR. BLITZER: Why can’t you find him?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Why hasn’t he been -- well, certainly a number of his lieutenants and cohorts have been captured in recent months and that effort, of course, continues. But one simply has to persist in those kinds of efforts and hopefully, sooner or later, he, himself will be captured. But let me stress that it’s not only Zarqawi who is involved in this resistance effort; of course, it’s these former regime elements, these ruthless Saddamists who have no other program to offer for this country except intimidation and terrorism and denying the democratic aspirations of the Iraqi people.
MR. BLITZER: The New York Times Saturday had an intriguing article about an Iraqi-chartered plane with some $300 million in cash being flown to Beirut, supposedly to purchase weapons from some mysterious source. Is all that true?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, we’re looking into those allegations. One thing I can tell you is that no appropriated U.S. Government monies are involved here. I would also note that these allegations arise because of accusations that have been -- are being traded between two political rivals who are running for the National Assembly here. So what we may be seeing, in part, at least, here is just part of the wind-up of a political campaign.
In any case, we are looking into it.
MR. BLITZER: That money is missing, or did it actually wind up purchasing weapons for the Iraqi army?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: As I said, as I said, we’re looking into it. I cannot give you the answer at the moment, but I can assure you we’re looking into it. What I do know is that there are no U.S. Government monies involved.
MR. BLITZER: One of those Iraqi politicians you referred to is Ahmed Chalabi, once a favorite among many officials here in Washington, now very, very controversial,
despised by some. Is he a good guy or a bad guy, from the U.S. perspective?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I don’t -- I have no comment on that. What I can say is that Mr. Chalabi is on the list, the United Shia list. He is well placed on that list and therefore I think he has a very good chance of being elected to the National
Assembly. So it seems to me that he will be playing a role in the political future of his country for some time to come.
MR. BLITZER: How much of the Iraqi policy -- the U.S. involvement in Iraq, the military, the economic support, the aid -- how much is it costing U.S. taxpayers every week?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I can tell you, of course, we have an $18.4 billion reconstruction program, but I’m afraid I can’t tell you the figure on a weekly basis. I really don’t have that particular set of facts at my fingertips.
MR. BLITZER: Well, if it’s about $100 billion for the military involvement, that would be a billion, almost $2 billion, a week.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: I didn’t -- you’d just have to ask the Pentagon about that, Wolf. I just don’t know those figures. But let me just say that the whole purpose of our programs here are to enable Iraq to carry out these elections and develop its political institutions, and our reconstruction program is designed to help them put their economy on their feet. And, of course, we want them to develop the capacity to defend themselves without relying on coalition forces. So the whole thrust of our policies is to enable the Iraqis to take on greater and greater ownership and greater responsibility for the conduct of their own affairs so that sooner or later these costs to which you refer will be significantly reduced.
MR. BLITZER: One final question. Saddam Hussein. When do you believe his trial will begin?
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Well, I think that there may be some preliminary activity with respect to some of the other so-called high-value detainees coming up fairly soon, perhaps in the investigative trial phase of three of the other accused. I would expect that from what I’m hearing from our experts that sometime this year the investigative portion of the trial of Saddam will begin and that maybe the trial itself might take place sometime towards the end of this year.
MR. BLITZER: Mr. Ambassador, you’re the U.S. point man in an extremely dangerous area. You and your colleague are very courageous, indeed. Thanks very much for joining us. Good luck next week. Good luck in Iraq.
AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE: Thank you very much, Wolf.
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