Embassy News
Ambassador Ryan Crocker Interview with Hoda Abdel-Hamid of Al Jazeera English
February 14, 2008
QUESTION: Hello and welcome to Talk to Al Jazeera. I'm Hoda Abdel-Hamid in Baghdad. Joining me today is Ambassador Ryan Crocker. He's the U.S. Ambassador in Iraq since 2007. Ambassador, welcome.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Thanks, Hoda.
QUESTION: The National Assembly just passed this package of three laws. You must be quite pleased about it.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, I think everyone can be quite pleased about it, especially the Iraqi people themselves. The National Assembly has been really working hard since the beginning of the year, I think probably harder than they've ever worked before, and what happened yesterday I think are the results of that: three very significant pieces of legislation; involved a lot of compromises, tradeoffs, disputes, floor fights, all the things that go into the legislation process in a democracy. So it's a pretty good day for Iraq.
QUESTION: But as you said, it was a lot of hard bargaining going on to reach the voting. But don't you think that bargaining was based again on sectarian gains, each one trying to get the most (inaudible) based on his own sect, basically, rather than on political progress?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: That's an important issue. I think that as we look at those pieces of legislation and you look at the tradeoffs that led to their realization, you see obviously that there was something in all of this for everybody. And that's kind of the nature of democratic compromise.
In terms of the budget, of course, everybody got a budget, not only the Kurds. The fact that there is an amnesty law that has now been passed, obviously of particular importance to Iraq Sunnis, was reached in a spirit of compromise that necessarily had to reach across sectarian lines or there would have been no such agreement. So I think as violence has come down in the last few months and stayed down, we're now seeing a political environment develop in which the kinds of compromises, the kinds of tradeoffs across the sectarian and ethnic divides that were unthinkable when you were here a year ago are now not only possible but, as we saw yesterday, achievable.
QUESTION: Now, I was talking this morning to some lawmakers, asking them their opinion. The ones [I talked with said] they had more reservations about the provincial law because they say it postponed -- its application was postponed till after the elections and that is going to open or exacerbate the inter-Shia rivalry, specifically in the south. Is that something you're worried about?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, the provincial powers law was, of the three, really the most complex piece of legislation, and it involves really historic compromises -- what authorities the center has, what authorities now fall to the provinces. As you know, the law also set a timetable with respect to elections, 90 days for the enactment of an electoral law and then elections themselves to be held by October 1st. So we're not talking about lengthy delays in any case. In fact, I had consultations with Iraqi leaders last night and today, and it's pretty clear that organized movement very quickly is going to be important to meet these deadlines.
So the elections are going to be important. We worry about a lot of things, and clearly the situation in the south is one of them. But I think the best way to deal with those kinds of tensions is through just what this law intends, which is to organize elections by fall of this year.
Elections are not a magic solution, but they're absolutely key to the development of a democracy and they're key to dealing with the concerns of those who feel that they are not represented in the current order.
QUESTION: Now, key to this law, the provincial laws and the elections, is obviously the behavior of the Sadrists. We're waiting to hear from Muqtada al-Sadr whether he's going to renew his ceasefire or not. But when you speak to his people, they say they feel that they're (inaudible) and -- but they continue to be targeted by U.S. forces. And they also say that they are -- they suspect that the U.S. is backing the formation of Shia Awakening councils which would be out there to basically chase them out of the army.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, there are a couple of important points here. First, the Sadr trend, I think, represents something important in Iraqi political life. There's really no question about that. It has historically, from the days when Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr Sayyid Mohammad said about giving a philosophical direction to the trend, and it does so today, as we saw just recently in the parliamentary debates.
What we target is not a political movement by any means. We appreciate the opportunity for dialogue with the Sadr trend and I hope there's an occasion to expand it. We target criminal and terrorist elements, period, whether they are from the Sunni extreme or the Shia extreme. And the fact is there are elements, extreme factions of the Jaish al-Mahdi, that have not honored Sayyid Muqtada's call for a ceasefire and a cessation of operations that continue to attack Iraqis and coalition forces. And yes, we will go after them. But we are certainly not in any way directing actions against the Sadr movement per se; quite the contrary.
With respect to the situation in the south, again, I'd like to be very clear. In the south, the United States is not involved with supporting or creating Awakening movements. There is clearly political activity in the south among the tribes. That has to be an Iraqi phenomenon, but it does not involve us.
QUESTION: But you are supporting Awakening movements in Baghdad, let's say, in Shia neighborhoods in Baghdad. Now, they say that these are actually (inaudible) people who are after them.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: As we deal with that whole phenomenon of the Awakenings, it's very important to understand that, again, this is not an independent U.S. initiative. Everything we're doing with these groups, whether it's in Anbar, in Diyala or here in Baghdad, we're doing in full consultation with the Iraqi Government. For example, a couple of days ago General Petreaus and I had lunch with the Iraqi Follow-up Committee for National Reconciliation with its new head, Mohammed Sammak. And we talked about some of these issues. So it isn't a question of us picking favorites in an internal fight. That's exactly what we want to avoid. And we look to our Iraqi partners to ensure that we do avoid it.
QUESTION: Now let's look a bit more about these Awakening councils. Obviously, they had a great role in, you know, decreasing the violence and they're doing a great job at the moment. But aren't you worried a bit about their future in the sense that at the moment the U.S. is supporting them in the sense that they're paying them at least, and their relation with the Iraqi Government is not so good?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, in many cases, members of these groups are part of the Iraqi Government in the sense that they have become members of the military or the police forces. You've got thousands of Awakening Movement members in Anbar, for example, that are now wearing the uniform of Iraq and getting their salaries from the Ministry of Interior. Here in Baghdad, the pace of absorption of members of these Awakenings by the security forces is expanding, and we just had a discussion today with the Prime Minister in which he expressed his intent to continue on to bring these individuals under the arm of the Iraqi Government.
Now, the reality is that the numbers are such that only a relatively small percentage, say 20 to 25 percent, can be absorbed into Iraqi security forces. The remainder will need civilian job training, vocational education and job opportunities. And we and the Iraqi Government are establishing joint programs, funded equally by the U.S. and by Iraq, to see that these people are taken care of as well.
QUESTION: Another thing they want is political representation. How likely is that possible? Apparently, they had offered to fill up some of the vacant ministerial jobs there, and they say that the government is not very keen on that. Do you think it's a good idea for them to have political representation at this stage?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, it's the essence of a democracy that all the citizens of that democracy feel that they are directly or indirectly represented. So yes, it's very important. That takes us back again to yesterday's legislation that sets a timetable for provincial elections. I think that's going to be important all over the country. It'll be particularly important in provinces such as Anbar, where many of the tribal voters boycotted the last elections and are not really represented in the provincial council. So the best way forward, as always with democracy, I think is through elections.
QUESTION: Now, the accountability and justice law, is that what you were hoping for as a law? Are you not afraid that it could have -- it could actually backfire, the law as it is now?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: What we were and are hoping for with respect to the accountability and justice law is a legislative initiative that furthers the process of reconciliation.
QUESTION: But will it? The way it's stated now, will it?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: It comes down to how it is implemented. And that we must wait and see. Now, implementing regulations will have to be drafted, and that process is going to be important. I think it's very important that the spirit of reconciliation direct how the law is implemented. And one thing that has been clear to me, having been here just about a year now, is that there is a different mood in Iraq, here in Baghdad. It is a mood that favors reconciliation, and that's, again, what made yesterday's legislative package possible. So I think the spirit is going to be different, and that leaves me cautiously optimistic about how accountability and justice will be implemented.
QUESTION: Okay. So we've seen these laws that are going in the right direction for national reconciliation. At the same time, we've seen a sort of fragmentation of security in the sense that now security is in the hand of these Awakening council. Isn't that weakening the government somehow? Or is it -- I mean, could it become very dangerous at some point?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, actually I see it slightly differently. Again, these Awakening councils, volunteers, concerned local citizens, they are not operating independently. In many instances, they come to us first, but we then make sure their activities are coordinated with Iraqi security forces. And that's the case here in Baghdad and everywhere else. They're working in close coordination with both coalition and Iraqi security forces.
And this, too, is simply a temporary measure. The goal is, as we were discussing, their absorption, part of them into the Iraqi security forces formally and the others into the civilian job market. So they are not an independent security actor. That would be dangerous. They are linked in their current form to the Iraqi Government, Iraqi security forces, and to coalition forces. And over time, they will transition either into members of the forces outright or into purely civilian pursuits.
QUESTION: Let's move on to Iran now. I think you were scheduled to have another round of talks, but they've just been postponed, or canceled let's say. Do you know why?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I don't. For several months now, we have indicated repeatedly to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, that in response to Iraq's invitation that we, the United States, are ready to sit down with the Iranians to talk about how security can be improved in Iraq.
The Iranians have made excuses, changed dates, and most recently after agreeing to talks on the 15th of February they have apparently now informed the Iraqis that they're not ready to talk. All I can say is that we are. If it can make a positive difference in Iraq's security, we're ready to sit down. The Iranians don't seem to share the same interest.
QUESTION: Do you think it's linked with the events in Damascus?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I could not possibly say what motivates them. Our focus on this, as you know, is strictly on Iraq, on Iraqi security and what needs to happen that Iran can influence that can improve Iraqi security. We link it to nothing else. And frankly, neither should the Iranians.
QUESTION: Has there been an improvement or not?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: There has been an improvement in security in Iraq, I think without question. I am not prepared to say that the Iranians are taking consistent actions that have contributed to that improvement.
QUESTION: Because the bulk of attacks on U.S. soldiers is by, let's say, Iranian-backed militias or with Iranian EFPs, those famous EFPs.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Those famous EFPs. And the employment of EFPs against us goes up and down, so I can't ascribe any particular Iranian policy position behind it. My sense is that they continue to support extremist militia elements, the so-called special groups, with arms, with training and with munitions, including those EFPs. And in all of this, of course, they're targeting not just us but they're also targeting Iraqis.
QUESTION: But Mr. Ambassador, these Shia extremist militia groups, or however you want to call them, they usually have a political arm who is in the Iraqi Government. Do you pressure these groups to -- I mean, the political arm of these militias, too? They are the ones receiving it at the end of the day.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Yes. In the case of the special groups, I actually think they are, in reality, working for Iran, not working for any Iraqi party. I think they have become Iranian surrogates, as we saw with some groups in Lebanon.
QUESTION: Now moving on to Syria, President Bush today, I think, put a new set of sanctions against it. What I don't understand is just a few weeks ago here in Baghdad, coalition forces were saying that actually Syria had done a great effort and controlled -- and the number of foreign fighters coming through the border had diminished by at least 50 percent. So isn't there a bit of a contradiction going on there?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think we said at the time that it appears that the Syrians have taken some steps to curtail the number of foreign fighters crossing from Syria into Iraq, but they need to do more. This is an extremely serious business. These foreign fighters are the most dangerous elements that we have to contend with in Iraq. They are often the suicide killers. So while it is good that the number has reduced, it is really incumbent upon Syria to go much farther. It is not all right to stop one bomber and let another bomber go. They've got to shut down the whole thing, and we're attempting to persuade them that it is in their best interest to do so.
QUESTION: Pardon, Mr. Ambassador, but you've lived a long time in the Middle East and you know how things work on this side of the world. Do you think that by putting another set of sanctions on them is actually going to motivate them to do more or is actually going to motivate them to do less?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I'd like to think that the Syrians will look at a step like this, look at what they're dealing with, which ultimately is an element, these foreign fighters, who can be very, very dangerous to them, and decide that the cost-benefit balance is tipping too far into the cost column and that they need to change course.
QUESTION: Okay, now let's move to the long-term relations between the U.S. and Iraq. And you are about to start negotiating these arrangements. Condoleezza Rice just said it will include the status of the forces. What does that mean?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Status of forces.
QUESTION: Yes. What does that mean?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Those are the terms, conditions, authorities that would apply to the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq once this agreement is negotiated and goes into effect.
QUESTION: Okay. One of the big questions is will the U.S. want to keep authority to carry out combat operations.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, again, this is a negotiation that hasn't even started yet, so you'll forgive me if I don't conduct the first round of it with you over Al Jazeera. But I'd also say that it should be very clear to all of us that while, for example, great progress has been made in the fight against al-Qaida in Iraq, that al-Qaida is not defeated in Iraq, it is not likely to be fully defeated in Iraq in the course of 2008 although we hope to continue to make progress, and that therefore as we move into 2009 and beyond the Security Council resolution, there is going to be a need, for all of our sakes, that we continue operating together against al-Qaida.
QUESTION: Do you see in 2008 more and more security authority going to the Iraqis?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, that's been underway, as you know, for some time. Almost half of Iraq's provinces are now under provincial Iraqi control, including and especially for security. And as conditions permit, we would expect to see that transition continue.
One thing that many observers miss as they focus on the U.S. surge into Iraq, the additional 30,000 troops, is that there was an Iraqi surge during 2007 that was more than three times as great. Over 100,000 additional Iraqis came into service in the security forces. So that transition, if you will, started some time ago and is continuing and will continue throughout 2008.
QUESTION: But Mr. Ambassador, in numbers they look great. They still don't have enough equipment and let's look at the coalition forces, the American military. It's a very hard battle here on the ground. So do you really realistically think that Iraqi security forces will be able to carry out such a massive operation? It's going to be ongoing. As you said, al-Qaida will be here. It's not going away.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: And I expect that we will continue our cooperation. We have talked about the fact that our redeployments needs to be based on conditions, conditions assessed jointly by us and by the Iraqis. What none of us want to see are the gains that have been achieved at such cost by both Iraqi forces and our own then lost because we moved too quickly.
At the same time though, and I've seen it during my year here, Iraqi forces are gaining not just in numbers but in capabilities. They have been in the middle of this hard fight right along with us, in some cases in front of us. Their casualties have consistently been two to three times our own. And in the process of this fight, they are developing really impressive capabilities.
So again, it'll be a gradual process, but I think the direction is clear. We are handing off to them, transitioning increasingly to Iraqi control, and I expect that to continue.
QUESTION: Okay. Now, the skeptics, Iraqi politician skeptics, are saying that what's happening now is that al-Qaida is certainly weakened and on the run, and at the moment there are certainly positive steps against them. But at the same time, there's a creation of a Sunni-Sunni inter-fight and a Shia-Shia inter-fight; it's not anymore Sunni-Shia but it's among themselves. Is that a fair assessment?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Only to a certain point. The kind of violence that we saw when you were here last through 2006 and into 2007 of just really horrific sectarian conflict is not something that we're now seeing paralleled in the Sunni-Sunni and Shia-Shia disagreements. To a very marked extent, these disagreements are being expressed vocally and not through force of arms, and that's extremely important. It's extremely important that they continue as they have differences, and Iraqis will among themselves, that they resort to peaceful means to solve them. And I sense a will to do just that.
Now, how do you move to the next step? Again, I think the legislation we saw yesterday is important. The amnesty tells people that you don't have to put your back to the wall and fight your neighbors, that there is a hand that's reached across. The budget, almost $50 billion for 2008, tells Iraqis that the resources are there to make their lives better, that they will have a stake in a better future for them and especially for their children. I think that's extremely important. And provincial powers, of course, through its stipulation for elections by the fall, tells all Iraqis, including those who feel they are not represented adequately in the current system, then okay, here's your chance. Get ready, take your positions into a political campaign and see what the voters have to say. And that I think is the best way of resolving or managing the kinds of political disputes that are starting to emerge as violence subsides.
QUESTION: One of the big topics in 2008 will be the fate of Kirkuk. The referendum has been postponed. Now how are you going to get -- how are you going to solve that one? Are the Kurds wiling to postpone it a bit further? People are already accusing them of changing the numbers of how many Kurds live in central Iraq. How do you see that develop?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think there were two encouraging developments at the end of the year. The first was agreement among Iraq's leadership to postpone the deadline until the end of June. The second was their decision to ask the United Nations to provide technical assistance. And I just met earlier this afternoon with the Special Representative of the Secretary General, and he explained to me how he is planning to bring in additional personnel and resources to assist with this whole Article 140 process, because as you know, Kirkuk is only one part of a number of internal boundary issues.
I think it's important that Iraqis start to see some progress in dealing with these issues. And as you know, they have a number of phases. I think what is called the normalization process in Kirkuk is now moving with greater speed to take care of people who were forcibly brought in as settlers from outside to help them get back to other places. That's moving ahead.
And I expect the United Nations to be active in the weeks ahead to kind of map out how the core issues might be discussed both in Kirkuk and in other areas. I think what Iraqis need to see is progress, because if there is progress underway, then hard deadlines become less important.
QUESTION: Okay. So when you say Iraqis need to see progress, the Iraqi people need to see that progress. Now, the U.S. has created that security, enough for the politicians to go ahead. How can we explain to the Iraqi people that services are not advancing in any shape or form? There's been a bitterly cold winter and most people had two hours of electricity and no water. I mean, how can you explain that to them that things are going better?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, and there is going to be an extremely hot summer in a few months and the Iraqi people certainly expect a good bit more than the few hours of electricity they've had.
You're absolutely right; if 2007 had to be the year of security, in many respects 2008 needs to be the year of services and economic development as well as further political progress. A couple of weeks ago I was over in Rasafa on Mutanabi Street, you know, that was the site of just a horrific bombing, I think when you were here last year, and I looked at the reconstruction, I looked at the new sewer system that's being put in, and I asked people what was on their minds. And every single one of them said services. You know, it's great that the security is better, nice that the government helped us with reconstruction, we need services.
Now, I think the leadership here is clearly getting that message. The Prime Minister today stressed to me that his top priority is electricity. He wants to know how American companies might be able to help him over the longer term. He described some short-term measures he is taking -- new authorities for the electricity minister, for example. So I think the government understands the problem. Now they have to deal with it in a constructive way. And clearly, people are going to be watching.
QUESTION: Okay. Another big issue is the oil law. Some people say that it's actually by passing the oil law will be the first real concrete step towards national reconciliation because it will have people, all the different groups, relax a little bit. Why is it so difficult?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: The oil law will be important, but it's also important to bear in mind that even without it some key steps are being taken. Revenues are being distributed whether or not there is a revenue-distribution law. And indeed, the entire budget debate and the budget decision reflects, I think, a desire on the part of Iraq's leaders, including in parliament, to manage an equitable distribution of the wealth that comes from oil. So it is important, but some of the key elements that it will regulate are going forward in any case.
The oil law is hard because -- for the same reason a lot of things are hard here. It's not by any means a purely technical matter. It involves the relationship between the regions, in this case the Kurdish region and the center: who should have what authorities? It involves confidence, the need for trust on both sides. And my hope is that other step are enacted legislatively like we've just seen, that level of trust gradually increases to make things that were impossible before become achievable in the near term, because Iraq does need this law. If it is going to fully develop its petroleum potential, a new legislative framework has to be brought into place. And it is my hope, and indeed I talked about this today with some of Iraq's leaders, that after the achievements of yesterday, this will provide some new momentum toward another effort to achieve a comprehensive hydrocarbon package.
QUESTION: But when you look at how the Kurds look at or the Arabs look at it, when it comes to the Arabs it triggers a nationalistic feeling. They want it to be part of the central government, a state company. The Kurds are pushing for privatization and they are also signing their own deals. So is there any meeting point possible there? I mean, they're completely different tracks at the moment.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: There was a couple of weeks ago a very interesting conference in London on Iraqi oil that brought government officials together with company representatives. And the Minister of Oil noted that Iraq is now proceeding with solicitations for what are called technical services agreements. In fact, the deadline for those offerings is just next week. We hope and expect that major oil companies, including U.S. major oil companies, are going to be involved in this process that will bring them into Iraq on service agreements on existing fields, and I hope establish the beginning of a new relationship between Iraq and the major oil companies. Because as your question suggests, that relationship in the past has either been nonexistent or difficult. This is a time for a new beginning, and I also think that when that step is taken on terms that are acceptable both to the Iraqi Government and the companies, you also create the basis in practical terms for a renewed focus on achieving a comprehensive hydrocarbon law because the Kurds indeed have signed a number of contracts. You may have noticed none of those contracts are with what we would call a first-tier or major oil company, and it is those companies that have the resource, the capabilities, the technologies that will really make a difference in the development of Iraq's petroleum sector.
QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador, another issue that worries a lot of people is the future of the security contractors. As you know, they've very unpopular on the streets of Baghdad. After the latest incident, it was said that there will be a review of their status. What stage are we at now?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: There are a number of elements involved here. There is a legal investigation into the particular incident at Nassour Square that is still ongoing. The issue of contractors is clearly going to come up in our discussions of a long-term security relationship. And we'll have to find a way that meets Iraq's concerns but also takes into account the fact that these contractors continue to perform an absolutely vital service, not just for us. Security contractors also work for the Iraqi Government and do so in large numbers.
So there have been a number of discussions already. We have taken certain steps to better control and regulate the activities of these contractors. Iraq is doing the same. It will be a subject of discussion as we open negotiations. And I think just bringing the same spirit of common interest and common purpose to the table, we'll work out solutions to this.
QUESTION: Because I mean, when you go in the red zone, as they call it, security contractors have so much harmed the image of the United States on the streets of Baghdad, just by the way they go around. So people do wonder why they're still here. Why does the superpower of the world need them? And how can you explain that to Iraqis?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, first, I'd make the point that we are concerned how security is managed. It needs to be managed. And you may have noted in recent months there have been just really no reports of problems. Good security doesn't always mean very high-profile security, so we're trying to kind of lower the profile a bit but still provide necessary protections.
And it is still necessary. A great deal of progress has been made, but there are still a lot of extremely bad elements out there, and nothing would suit the purposes of al-Qaida more or extremists from the special groups than to have foreigners moving around Baghdad with no protection. We would pay a very high price for that, I think, very quickly. So it remains a necessity. It's how it is managed that I think is important, and we are working very hard to manage this in a way that keeps people safe but also does not create problems for our Iraqi friends.
QUESTION: And one last question, Mr. Ambassador. As we go through 2008, what do you think are the points that could make or break the situation?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, I think 2008 in many respects will be, as we've already seen, a continuation of the progress achieved in 2007. It's absolutely critical to keep the violence down. That is at the heart of everybody. The political progress that we've seen, the ability of the parties to make gestures, to make concessions, to take steps toward reconciliation, I think all of that is possible because violence has subsided. So keeping violence down is absolutely key. And that means being very careful about the decisions that we take in coordination with the Iraqis on force levels. We've achieved a lot. We can't afford to lose it all over again.
Second, I think continued effort for political and economic progress. 2008 should be the year of elections. Parliament has now legislated that, so those provincial elections in the fall are going to be, I think, very important for the reasons we've described.
It also needs to be a year in which Iraqis start to see a real difference in their lives. And that takes you to the services. Services need to improve. Economic opportunity needs to improve. Unemployment rates need to do down. Iraqis need to feel that they have a future that is not only secure in terms of their well-being and their safety, but also secure in economic terms. And I expect that this year will show that progress.
Related to that, Iraq now having legislated its biggest budget ever, it needs to effectively execute is biggest budget ever, which means both the provinces and the ministries in Baghdad have to show the ability to spend money swiftly but wisely and in a manner that benefits the people and in a way that the people can recognize it.
So that, I think, is the agenda for 2008. It's an ambitious agenda --
QUESTION: I was going to say that.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: -- in security terms, in political terms, in economic terms. But given the progress that Iraqis have registered over this last year, I'm confident they can achieve it.
QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. Ambassador.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Thank you, Hoda.
QUESTION: And thank you for joining us. See you next time.
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