Embassy News
Ambassador Ryan Crocker Interview with Good Morning America
March 12, 2008
QUESTION: Thank you again for your time.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Glad to do it.
QUESTION: So by all accounts, things are better, things are quieter now than they were six, eight -- a year ago. How fragile is this sense of quiet?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, it's a great question to start with because you're right on both counts; things are better, but things are also fragile. I've been here now just a year, and when I got here one of the first things I did was to take a look at a Baghdad neighborhood I was familiar with in the 1970s in Dora, and it was a shock. The physical and psychological devastation that the sectarian violence had wrought was everywhere in evidence. I was in that neighborhood about ten days ago, and the transformation is extraordinary. I mean, this was an area that al-Qaida was deeply entrenched in, where we could not have driven through it except in M-1 tanks, and where the people certainly didn't go out in the streets. What we have now is not only Sunnis in the streets of Dora, but during the recent commemoration of the assassination of Imam Hussein, in which millions of pilgrims converge on Karbala, tens of thousands of Shia pilgrims walked right through this neighborhood and were given food and water by the Sunni residents. So the transformation is that dramatic.
But at the same time, that which was achieved in a remarkably short space of time is still subject to reversal. I think we and the Iraqis have got to be very careful here. No one is making a premature declaration of victory. We've got good progress, but the challenge now is how to sustain it.
QUESTION: How much credit do you give to the surge? Do you give credit to the surge alone, or must you also give credit to Muqtada al-Sadr, Iran, the Sunni Awakening?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: This is Iraq, so everything is complicated. It's all of the above and it's more. The surge was, I think, the single most critical element because it in turn triggered a number of other things. The Sunni reaction that started in Anbar against al-Qaida was not an overnight phenomenon. In 2005 we saw, you know, the first efforts of the tribes to stand against al-Qaida and they were slaughtered. What was new this time was, first, several more years of al-Qaida excesses. Al-Qaida did savage things to the Sunni population of Anbar Province -- cutting off heads, cutting off fingers of smokers, forcing marriages with young girls, killing schoolchildren. People had had enough. But this time, they knew we had their backs. With the surge, that -- the U.S. resolve and force strength was there to back them up if they made a determined stand against al-Qaida. That’s what they did. That's what we did. And now you can again walk through downtown Ramadi -- something that was unthinkable a year ago -- and not only not see U.S. forces, you don't see Iraqi army forces either. It's all in the hands of the police. Security is that good.
The Iraqis had a tremendous amount to do with it, but it was the surge that set the stage. Your comment about Muqtada al-Sadr is also, I think, very relevant. What we saw in the course of this last year was a general revulsion on the part of Iraqis toward violence and those who practice it. Very dramatic among the Sunnis in Anbar and Baghdad, in the suburbs of Baghdad and elsewhere. Perhaps not quite as dramatic among the Shia, but still very noteworthy. At the end of August during a Shia religious commemoration in Karbala, Jaish al-Mahdi, the Sadr militia, attempted to take control by violence over one of the shrines. They were beaten back by Iraqi security forces, but it trigged a massive popular backlash against Jaish al-Mahdi and against the militias that was followed within less than a week by Sayyad Muqtada's ceasefire announcement.
QUESTION: So you think it was public sentiment that led him to cool off?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think it had a lot to do with it, that he recognized that people were very, very tired of militias disrupting security.
QUESTION: Tell me about the concerned local citizens. Because it's not just fatigue with the violence. You're paying --
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Absolutely.
QUESTION: -- ten dollars a day to guys who were shooting at us just a couple of years ago. Explain the wisdom of that.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Reconciliation is perhaps the most critical challenge that Iraq faces right now. And by definition, you don’t reconcile with your friends; you reconcile with your adversaries. So when people who had been shooting at us approach us and say, you know, we're thinking of turning our guns away from you and onto al-Qaida, would that be okay? Well, you know, it isn't too hard, I think, to get to the right answer.
QUESTION: But what's the risk there? What's the gamble -- arming and paying people who ultimately could change -- they could change their minds back. What's to stop them from changing their minds back to what they thought before?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, first, to be clear, we do not arm them. We do not give arms to anyone except to the Iraqi security forces. There's no shortage of arms. They have the arms. What we did was help them cross from one side of the line to the other.
But what next is a very good question. First, with all of the concerned local citizens, we have made it clear that they had to take an oath that they would support the Government of Iraq, and their actions have to be linked to Iraqi security forces. Over the short to medium term, their integration fully into Iraqi society is going to be key, and we're working with the government on this. In the Baghdad area, for example, the Iraqi Government has now approved more than 9,000 hiring orders for individuals to be brought into the police, go through police training and put on the uniform of the Iraqi police. We think that over time 20 to 30 percent of the concerned local citizens will be integrated into the Iraqi security forces. The remaining number, the majority, as security conditions stabilize, will have to be taken care of through civilian job programs, and we're working closely with the Government of Iraq to identify funding, to identify programs for vocation and technical education, for public works projects and for other ways that these individuals can move into the civilian labor force. So that's the progression that we would see.
QUESTION: Okay. Let's shift from security to politics. How would you describe, in a word -- I know this is a tough restriction for a career ambassador of your stature -- but one word, describe the political progress since the surge began.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Significant.
QUESTION: Really? It's not stagnant?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Nothing about Iraq is stagnant. It's moving all the time, one way or the other. What we've seen, as violence has come down -- and you know, we still have to sit on it, there is still violence out there, we need to knock it down further. It's not a perfect security situation yet by any means. But as it has come down, we've started to see aspects of political activity that, again, were impossible when I got here a year ago. The Iraqi parliament in its first six weeks of 2008, before it went on its current recess, passed more legislation and more significant legislation in this relatively short period than at any previous time.
QUESTION: Well, there was none really before, right, so anything is significant?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, they had a pensions law that was a key reconciliation step. But in very short order they passed a law on de-Baathification reform to open up exemptions for former Baath Party members who don't face other criminal charges. They agreed to amend the design of the Iraqi flag. That means that flag is now flying in all parts of the country, including in Kurdistan where it did not fly for the last several years. They passed a mammoth 2008 budget. They passed an amnesty law which is now in the process of implementation that could benefit tens of thousands of individuals and be a major step toward reconciliation.
They wrestled with and passed a very complex provincial powers law that is now subject to a veto by one of Iraq's vice presidents, but the process itself was interesting and I think quite significant. They were wrestling with issues as to whether the central government can remove a provincial governor. And for any American, these issues of states' rights are absolutely fundamental to the structure of society. This is not resolved yet. They're going to continue to argue about it. But it was a debate, again, that you could not have had in the atmosphere of sectarian violence that prevailed before.
QUESTION: You stand by -- you seemed when you went to Washington to counter the Iraq Study Group's recommendation that if we start moving for the exits, it will encourage them to reconcile in a quicker fashion. Do you stand by the theory that that is the wrong way to go?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I do. I've been in divided societies before in the Middle East, and certainly based on my -- the year I've spent here so far, my concern would be that if the Iraqis believe we are heading for the exits based on a timetable rather than on the achievement of conditions on the ground, they will move in the wrong way. They will be less likely to compromise, more concerned about the security of their particular communities. I think that's when the political debate stops, the tradeoffs in parliament come to a halt, and everybody starts rearming and reloading.
QUESTION: They go to the mattresses, to use the Godfather terminology?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Yep, that's when you start digging trenches.
QUESTION: But are they -- are they making progress fast enough? Talk about sustainability. We only have so many soldiers and so much money. Are you encouraging them to pick up the pace of this?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: That is literally a daily part of the dialogue. And of course, we are redeploying. By this summer, as you know, we will have -- our combat power will be 25 percent less than what it was at the height of the surge. That's significant. And we feel we can do this without risking the security gains that have been made.
QUESTION: You do?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: We do. Otherwise, we would not have made those recommendations. But again, you've got to keep an eye on the conditions. Our surge was significant. The Iraqi surge was more than three times larger than our own. They put over 100,000 additional men in uniform into the fight, both police and army together, in the course of 2007. So that has made a difference.
In terms of resources, ability to spend money -- obviously crucial. Iraq is spending money at a much faster rate now than it was a year ago. 2007 capital budget execution was about 63 percent, compared to, say, 22 or 23 percent for the 2006 budget. So they're building the capacity to be able to use their own revenues for the benefit of their own people. But it doesn't happen overnight. I mean, capacity is something you build; you don't simply create. So they've moving in the right direction. I think we have to be sure we demonstrate the strategic patience to stay with them until they've got this in hand.
QUESTION: That's an interesting term, "strategic patience." And this is a question I was going to save for later, but I think it's a good segue. You talked about in your testimony that this is a traumatized country and trauma takes a long time to heal. Should Americans accept the idea that this is a project that's going to require our presence here for a long, long time -- 25, 50 years?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think what we need to do as Americans is recognize several things: first, that this is going to be a long process; and second, that it is very important. As I've said before, we can't think that, you know, we're tired of the movie, we're just going to change the channel and go on to other things and it doesn't matter anymore. Because this movie is going on with or without us, and it certainly is my judgment that without us is going to make the next few reels far, far worse than the reels we've already seen. So understanding it's important, understanding that it is going to be hard, I think are key.
At the same time, I do not foresee a multiyear period in front of us where we've got to continue on at the same levels of commitment in terms of troops and money. We are taking out a substantial number of our forces because we think we can do it without having conditions get away from us. So I would see a further trend in that direction as -- again, as long as we're careful and as long as we maintain that strategic patience and not let understandable frustration over the setbacks and the problems take over our judgment.
QUESTION: How aware -- when it comes to the political power players in this country, how aware are they of the American presidential election?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Oh, I think they're very aware. They -- satellite TVs have proliferated in Iraq with media freedoms, and they follow this very closely.
QUESTION: Do you see them making strategic bets depending on who they think might be in the White House in a year?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think Iraq's senior politicians understand that they need to be thinking in terms of relations with states, with governments, and not to fixate on individuals. I know, because they tell me, that they hope whoever is the next American president is going to appreciate that the stakes are pretty high here in Iraq and behave accordingly.
QUESTION: So by a large -- most Iraqi politicians, parliament, would be John McCain supporters?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: You'll have to ask them that.
QUESTION: But you said -- if they want us here for the long haul, they'd be rooting for McCain?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think what they want to see is an American appreciation and understanding that what happens in Iraq is obviously in Iraq's interest but it's also in America's interest, and that will set policies accordingly. I think that, again, Iraqis have learned a lot about democratic politics in the last five years. They're watching our campaign closely, but I don't think they're leaping to any conclusions.
QUESTION: Do you believe Iran is still fueling the insurgency?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: It's -- I do believe that Iran continues to back extremist militia elements, the so-called special groups of the Jaish al-Mahdi. We think they have provided training, financing, also a supply of arms, ammunition and explosives, including the explosively formed projectiles which have been the most lethal weapon against our own forces.
QUESTION: And yet, they invite President Ahmadi-Nejad here for a state visit. So do they disagree with your assumption of this or how does -- you know, what does it say that the President of Iran gets the red carpet treatment and the President of the United States has to sneak in?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Iraq and Iran are neighbors. They are going to have to have a relationship. Iraqis understand that. I think they are very much interested in trying to understand that Iran is aware that some of its actions here are destabilizing and dangerous for the very government that Iranian declared policy says it supports. So in terms of the visit, I'm confident that Ahmadi-Nejad heard that message from senior Iraqis. And in terms of his ability to make that visit, I think that's in itself an interesting commentary on the success that we and the Iraqis have had in improving security in this country over the last year because he could not have made the drive, or drives around town, had he come a year ago. And of course, he didn't come a year ago.
I'd also just point out that in terms of the profile he could maintain, the one thing the President of Iran presumably does not have to worry about is being targeted by Iranian-backed special militias.
QUESTION: Yeah, that brings a certain confidence, I'm sure, to the visit. I must ask for your comment on Admiral Fallon's departure. The theory is that he does not see eye-to-eye with the administration on Iran. Is that the case?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, you've seen the statements by Secretary Gates and by Admiral Fallon himself addressing that. I certainly would have nothing to add to that, except to say that I think he is a very fine officer, a great American, someone that I have very much enjoyed working with over this past year. I just saw him today. And I'll miss him.
QUESTION: You're leaving in January. Is that so?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Early 2009.
QUESTION: Early '09. Why? It seems like you're just getting warmed up here.
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, assuming that the President does decide to keep me here through his administration, that would mean I will have spent two years in Iraq. That's a fairly substantial amount of time, given the stresses and strains. I will have also have completed 36 years in the Foreign Service, and it'll be time to move on to something else.
QUESTION: Well, you're certainly entitled to it from the work you've given, but are you concerned at all -- in making that decision, did you consider another person has to now regain the trust that you've managed to gather in your two years here? General Petraeus leaving at the same time, Admiral Fallon leaving -- isn't it better to have some sense of stability from the Iraqi point of view?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: I think we will build that stability, clearly. Again, two years is a fairly significant tenure. It's -- assuming again that the President decides to keep me here, I will have been the longest-serving U.S. representative to Iraq since 2003. So I think the time is about right. I also think, frankly, it's going to be important for the new administration, whoever the new president is, to pick the person that they want to representative them as they start out in the White House.
QUESTION: Okay. As we wrap this up, you're headed to Washington next month. Just in listening to the dialogue, the rhetoric, you know, from the seats in power in Washington in politics, pretty safe prediction that General Petraeus will be praised and you, on the other hand, might get beaten up a little bit about the lack -- the perceived lack of political progress. Are you prepared for that?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, my goodness, I mean, it's -- it sometimes doesn't seem so when you're sitting in the witness chair, but I have certainly come to appreciate that one of the great things about our political system is precisely this type of event, where representatives of the administration, in this case General Petraeus and myself, have to answer to the American Congress and, through them, to the American people. And yes, I'll be prepared to deal with their questions and concerns. I will give my most honest and frankest assessment of what we've got here. There certainly is progress, as we've described. There are a lot of problems. And what I hope I'm able to convey is that given the complexity of Iraq society, the brutalization that this country and its people went through not just in the last couple of years but in the 35 years of Baathi rule that preceded it, we are simply not going to find quick answers or easy solutions. I have a lot of days when I'm deeply frustrated out here, and sometimes I need to remind myself that given the challenges and the damage that has been done, it's in many respects amazing that they are making the kinds of political progress that they are.
QUESTION: I'm just interested how you do that, how you motivate yourself. Even from 8,000 miles away, people want to throw up their hands. Personally, just, you know, as career diplomat, how do you stay engaged?
AMBASSADOR CROCKER: Well, one thing that really helps is having good people around you, and I've spent a lot of my time during the year I've been here getting some of the finest people in the business to come out and join me. And when you walk in in the morning to whatever God-awful situation that may have developed overnight, when you've got people around you that are really the best that government can provide, that certainly helps. And I also remind myself that it's hard, but it's important; you've got to stay with it because the stakes are high.
And finally, there are times, frankly, when I just -- I simply fall back on the fact that I'm in the service, I raised my hand several years ago and swore an oath, and when the going gets hard, you simply put your head down and you keep on going.
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